by The Browns’ starting quarterback for the past four years has been Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The Browns’ starting quarterback for next year will be (ostensibly) Deshaun Watson, for whom they gave up three first-round picks (and more) to the Texans.
Both players are, at the time of this writing, healthy and on Cleveland’s active roster. However, my strong feeling is that neither player will be the Browns’ quarterback this season. And even if, somehow, one of them does play for the team, it won’t be for long.
Let’s examine these issues, both of which don’t surprise Cleveland.
Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports (Mayfield); Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports (Watson)
Deshaun Watson’s problem
contract king
I have made no secret of my disdain for how the Browns have rewarded Watson in the midst of his legal troubles.
I have long lamented the systematic bias against full guarantees in NFL contracts. Aside from one free agent, Kirk Cousins, who was able to get three completely safe years from the Vikings, we’ve never seen a fully guaranteed veteran contract beyond that limited term. And for years I’ve wondered who would be the player who would squeeze his team into an NBA/MLB-type contract, fully guaranteed, for five years or more (as opposed to two or three years guaranteed and then leaving it up to the team). ). ). Would it be Aaron Rodgers? Russell Wilson? Did Brees draw? patrick mahomes? Josh Allen? Lamar Jackson? The answers: No, no, no, no, no and not yet. The answer, perhaps largely due to his own misconduct: Deshaun Watson.
If you recall, the Browns were out of the hunt for Watson who, having grown up in Georgia, had narrowed his options down to the Falcons and Saints. So, magically, the Browns were back in hot pursuit and, wait, they actually signed him! The sports business always wins.
Protect bad behavior
With the steady trickle of more lawsuits and graphic details of Watson’s predatory behavior as described by masseuses, the question has been raised: Would the Browns try to void future contract guarantees or even opt out of the contract altogether? My answer? No way, for two reasons: 1) the contract won’t allow it, and 2) everyone is on Watson, regardless of the bad news.
I haven’t seen the contract, but a league source told me about the forfeiture provisions, and here’s what you need to know. First, the Browns can’t recover any misconduct money, old or new, in the first two years of the deal, 2022 and 2023. Even if Watson is suspended for the full season this year, his total financial loss will be $1 million, keeping the total bonus of $45 million he received. And next year’s $46 million is fully insured. As for the following three seasons (’24, ’25 and ’26), Watson would be subject to loss of warranties only for “new misconduct” causing league discipline. In other words, him alone for conduct beyond what the Browns knew when they signed the contract in March.
As for whether the Browns could argue that the additional lawsuits filed since the 22 that were in play when the Browns signed him could be “new misconduct,” well, good luck with that. Recent reports and claims are the same as previous reports and claims. We have been reading about Watson’s pattern of behavior with these massage therapists for over a year; the New York Times and the new lawsuits detail the same patterns of behavior. This is not a “new bad behavior”, but more of the same.
browns are in fashion
On a broader scale, let’s face it: The Browns aren’t going to try to recoup money or get out of this deal. They are all in this player.
Cleveland gave Watson the biggest and safest contract in NFL history. He minimized his financial loss from the suspension with a minimum salary (subject to suspension loss) and a $45 million bonus (not subject to suspension loss). And yes, Browns fans, the team has used this structure with other players (and we should note that Cleveland denies the contract structure is related to the looming suspension), but check this out: Are any of those other players faced a certain suspension?
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Watson is now the face of the franchise for the next five years, no matter what bad news will continue to rain down on his misconduct. If he is suspended for this entire year (below) and nothing else, the Browns will pay him $229 million over four years, a staggering $55.9 million per year.
Listen, we know what the Browns really mean here, but can’t, which goes something like this: “There’s never been a quarterback of this caliber that’s available; We went out and caught it. Public relations is bad now, but they will calm down.”
But bad PR isn’t going away any time soon, and the more I hear from Browns fans, the more “disgusting” the whole thing feels.
what will happen
I don’t see the NFL allowing Watson on its stage, in front of tens of millions of people every week, this year. The league has gotten players off the field for long stretches for much less misconduct toward fewer women. Whether it’s through the commissioner’s exempt list or (more likely) a lengthy suspension, I don’t think he’ll play.
Having Watson as the face of one of its legacy franchises is an affront to women everywhere, the very population the NFL has been trying to cultivate for decades. Again, precedent shows players have been suspended six games for sexual misconduct, also without criminal charges. And precedent should matter, since we’re under the same commissioner.
Should Watson be allowed to play? Well, that depends on your tolerance for bad behavior and our belief in these accusers. But it is not about one woman, or two, or five, or 10, or even 20. Twenty have already reached an agreement, there are more open cases and more women have come forward. Either Watson is 1) a victim of the biggest frame-up in history, concocted by a loose network of massage therapists connected to being searched by Watson on Instagram, or 2) she’s, well, a predator.
I still shake my head that the contract of the century in the NFL, of all the stars in the league, has gone to this player. And I think most likely he won’t even play on that contract until September 2023.
The Baker Mayfield Problem
I vividly remember the Thursday night game in 2018 in which Mayfield, then a Browns rookie who was the first pick in the draft, replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor against the Jets and a star was born. He later led the Browns to the divisional round and, it seemed, was the darling of the town, the organization and progressive insurance.
That was then, this is now.
After having his fifth-year option picked up for 2022 at nearly $19 million, Mayfield’s performance plummeted last season, whether due to injury or otherwise. While the Browns are wiping their brows over not extending Mayfield with tens of millions of dollars guaranteed, they’re certainly ruing the day they picked up his (guaranteed) option. Now, for probably more reasons than we know, Mayfield is persona non grata in the organization and the $19 million option hangs over them like a drag.
What will they do with Mayfield? I see three options, none of which include Mayfield playing for the Browns, even with Watson suspended. That ship has sailed. This is what could happen.
1. Pay something, exchange something
The NFL does not allow cash as part of trade compensation, but does allow a way around it. The Browns could pay Mayfield a bonus and then trade him, reducing the acquiring team’s financial obligation to make the trade more tempting.
For example, Cleveland could pay Mayfield a $10 million bonus (think of it as a parting gift) before trading him for a $9 million deal instead of $19 million. Trade compensation will mirror financial compensation: The more the Browns pay, the bigger pick they’ll receive.
This “pay something, trade something” model has some precedent, most recently in 2021 when the Panthers paid Teddy Bridgewater a $7 million bonus, leaving the Broncos responsible for just a $3 million salary to be their quarterback. headline.
2. Package an asset
Rather than attract a business partner with money, the Browns could attract a business partner with an asset, perhaps one even more valuable than Mayfield.
Ironically, the Browns were on the receiving end of such a trade in 2017. They took on the dead weight of Brock Osweiler’s $16 million guaranteed contract to receive a second-round pick along with him from the Texans. In other words, they paid $16 million for a second-round pick. For a team to take over Mayfield’s $19 million, the Browns would have to offer similar compensation in the trade. This is an unlikely option for a team with no first-round picks for the next two years (thanks to the Watson trade).
3. Pay him to shut up and not play
Deshaun Watson (remember it?) is the precedent here. Watson received his $10 million salary as a healthy member of the Texans’ active roster last season. However, through an agreement that was never actually acknowledged, Watson was told, or agreed, that he keep quiet, stay away, and collect the money from him. The Browns can say the same thing to Mayfield, the player Watson has now replaced: Keep quiet, stay out of sight and raise more than $1 million a week. And yes, Mayfield would definitely receive consideration from the Business of Football Hall of Fame for that.
The old Browns quarterback (Mayfield) and the new Browns quarterback (Watson) may well 1) be with the Browns in 2022 and 2) not play for them.
By doing so, they will receive $18 million (Mayfield) and $45 million (Watson) for their troubles.
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