by The draft is fast approaching, word is circulating around the league, and trade talks are starting to get serious. We will have a full mock draft update tomorrow. Until then, here are some notes from the NBA, things I’m listening to and other items to watch out for before draft night.
What about the top of the eraser?
From what I can tell, as of Wednesday morning, Jabari Smith remains the favorite to come off the board at No. 1 to Orlando. Due to the silence that the Magic have successfully projected to the rest of the NBA, this cannot be treated as an absolute certainty, but it has become a strong hunch shared by most of the league. Many think Magic boss Jeff Weltman has a soft spot for Chet Holmgren, but most expect Orlando to land on Smith, who, for what it’s worth, is my highest-rated prospect and the player I’d take at No. 1.
As usual, the Thunder are exceptionally hard to read, with most teams targeting Holmgren at No. 2. But no one I’ve talked to is willing to call him a lock. Most likely, Oklahoma City’s intentions will remain hidden until the last possible minute. I still think they’re done with Holmgren, but teams looking behind the Thunder are still operating contingencies if they don’t take him. While it would come as a surprise at this point, I’ll just point out that Jaden Ivey and Paolo Banchero are still viewed by many around the league as legitimate candidates to go to No. 2. And it’s well known now that the Rockets are expecting Banchero to fall to them. at No. 3.
Many teams are chasing the Kings’ No. 4 pick, and Sacramento has certainly been listening. But I’m not as sure as some seem to be that the pick is finally moving: Looking around the league, it’s hard to pinpoint the right kind of package that would ultimately entice the Kings out of their spot. My sense is that Sacramento likes the draft and may not want to go back too far, and it’s hard to see a combination of veterans and a desirable draft position that looks appealing. If the Kings stay at No. 4, Keegan Murray seems like the likely option. The Pacers and Spurs also covet Murray, and the Knicks and Wizards have been linked to Ivey in trade scenarios.
An update from Shaedon Sharpe
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With the draft a day away, Sharpe remains one of the toughest players to spot, with a realistic range starting with Portland at No. 7, and his absolute floor a bit difficult to pin down due to potential trades in the range 8-13. Sharpe didn’t necessarily move the needle on the training circuit, but no one in the league anticipates a shocking drop-off either: His physical gifts and scoring ability herald a pretty real advantage, and at some point recruiting him just turns into risk tolerance and situational preference. .
This is what I know to be true about the Sharpe situation. The Trail Blazers have done a lot of research on Sharpe behind the scenes and it’s believed they have a pretty real interest in him as the No. 7. (The other name that comes up frequently for Portland is Dyson Daniels.) If Portland doesn’t take Sharpe, the Pelicans are considered a possible landing spot for him at No. 8. Depending on the trades that take place, the farthest he would realistically fall is No. 10 or No. 11. , whether it’s the Wizards, the Knicks, or a different team. in one of those places.
Reading between the lines, this leaves the Thunder, long touted as a suitor for Sharpe, on the outside looking at No. 12. The possibility of a Portland-Oklahoma City trade that would center around a trade of No. 7 and No. 12 has been around for a while, and if the Thunder move up, Sharpe could be the target. Oklahoma City has also been heavily tied to Ousmane Dieng. It’s unclear if they value either player enough to trade, but considering the indefinite timeline the Thunder appear to have and that neither player is guaranteed to be there at No. 12, it’s a theory he has. sense.
Sizing the central market
There has been an ongoing debate in the league for months over whether Memphis’ Jalen Duren or Duke’s Mark Williams would be the first center drafted, which intensified after the combine but appears to have leveled in Duren’s favor. Most in the league expect him to be the first big man out tomorrow night, and now the question is simply where.
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Most in the league believe Duren’s rank starts at No. 9 with San Antonio, but it doesn’t seem like the Spurs have him as their best option. He has two notable suitors picking before that in Detroit and Portland, but the former would apparently have to acquire another lottery pick to get it, and the latter makes more sense in trade scenarios. (For example, if the Blazers traded back to No. 12 with the Thunder, they could possibly grab Duren there.) The Wizards seem focused on improving their backcourt and are still exploring trade options with the 10th pick, and the Knicks are said to be more likely to re-sign Mitchell Robinson than draft a big at No. 11. New York has also been targeted as a candidate to roll back.
It’s worth noting, according to sources, that Duren decided to cancel a recent workout with the Hornets. The reason why it’s open to interpretation, could be posturing, or it could be that Duren’s camp is comfortable that he’ll be off the board sooner, but Charlotte is thought to have a real interest and could certainly draft him at No. 13 anyway. The Hornets have picks 13 and 15 in hand and have long seemed like an obvious home for a center. So if Duren does go there, that probably puts Williams in the 14-18 range, where someone could target him via trade, or perhaps the Bulls, who are seen as a soft landing spot, could draft him. That’s a value sweet spot for a player that many scouts have called his best center.
After Williams comes off the board, things get a lot busier as market demand doesn’t seem as high for the remaining centers in the class. It’s hard to pinpoint a landing spot for Walker Kessler, who I’m told has been dealing with a broken toe and has been limited or unable to participate in his various workouts at all. Kessler received a last-minute green room invite on Wednesday, and the top end of his range starts in the late teens, but also stretches into the second round and may hinge on potential trade changes in the 20s. French center Ismael Kamagate (who seems willing to make a backup), Arizona’s Christian Koloko and Arkansas’ Jaylin Williams appear to be the other true bigs up for grabs in the top 40. They should all be drafted, but the number of landing spots legitimacy isn’t all that high, barring trades, leading to some potentially interesting scenarios as we go through the draft.
patchwork
– As of Wednesday morning, opposing teams felt Philadelphia’s 23rd pick would likely be on the move. The 76ers are believed to be exploring attaching the pick to a veteran to save some money, and Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green are known to be available. There’s also some speculation surrounding Tobias Harris, but the remaining two seasons of his hefty contract are likely to limit the number of takers. Philadelphia has been tipped as a destination for PJ Tucker in free agency, as reported by the Philadelphia Investigator on Tuesday.
As noted earlier in Monday’s mock draft, Golden State has been open to moving No. 28 as a cost-saving measure, with recent lottery picks James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody all having a longer time. next season and the team’s payroll perennially. land them on the luxury tax. However, the Warriors have historically valued their latest first-rounders and are also believed to be considering several prospects in this range. So while options are certainly on the table, a trade here may not be a foregone conclusion.
– After Michigan’s Caleb Houstan opted out of the combine, there was immediate speculation about whether he had promise for a team. And while he may not have had one at the time, his draft range has become clearer: The 28-35 range feels more likely, with the Warriors, Grizzlies, Magic and Raptors having found rival teams as potential spots. landing. He may not be sure in the first round, but he should be in line for a guaranteed deal.
– Florida State’s John Butler has quietly worked his way into the draft picture and looks like a good bet to hear his name come out Thursday night, potentially somewhere in the top 40. The 7-foot-0, 175-pound forward will be a long-term project, but he throws and handles the ball unusually well for his size and has drawn interest from teams as a potential mid-draft homer. The first year wasn’t spectacular, Butler played well at the combine and has made a compelling case as a player worth developing.
– A wide range of teams are looking to acquire second-round picks: The Lakers, Jazz, Mavericks, Suns, Nets and Heat have been mentioned as possibilities. Those seconds have added value for big-payroll contenders looking to save money, since it’s less expensive to sign a second-round pick with the minimum than it is to sign a rookie outright with the minimum in free agency. (The CBA works in mysterious ways.)
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